Energy Transition of German steel mills

Around the sustainable development of the German economy, Germany's Energy Transition has been a hot topic in political and public life. While the big trend of the energy-saving and emission reduction is bound to challenge industrial's development, especially the energy-consuming industrial. It is also required by the European energy policy and climate policy.

German steel enterprises invest continuously in technology and equipment to improve energy efficiency, energy conservation and make a great contribution. And it also opened up a new path, so is worthy of reference for domestic steel enterprises.

ArcelorMittal’s production site in Germany is one of the world's highest energy efficiency of steel production site. Because energy costs exceed the production process of all other costs, ArcelorMittal has been trying to minimize the use of energy.

Today, the political decisions which influent the German energy transformation and European climate policy are: a renewable resource regulations, energy taxes, energy efficiency guidance and energy price compensation regulations. These policies and regulations directly affect the German steel industry. Renewable energy regulation and energy tax policy were discussed in summer of 2012 and led to increase the cost of € 167 million in ArcelorMittal Company. Therefore, how to improve energy efficiency in the German factory becomes very important. Moreover, the environmental investment, quality of raw materials and high-tech advanced steels also require higher energy consumption. German energy prices are one of the highest in Europe and the global. It is estimated that the German steel cost on the energy will increase € 0.01 and will cause the entire German steel industry an additional € 170 million in costs. Today, as the European steel overcapacity, steel demand will lower than in 2009 by 25%.

For these reasons, in order to maintain and further improve the advantages of its cost and energy efficiency, ArcelorMittal will have continuous investment to their subordinates in technology and equipment. For example, in its Bremen Company, has invested in secondary dedusting system. Hamburg companies of ArcelorMittal spend 15% of direct investment costs for energy efficiency projects. ArcelorMittal Duisburg - Ruhr Port Company recently completed an advanced wire rolling plant, investing €95 million. In Eisenhüttenstadt region, about 80 small and medium-sized primary processing workshop and finishing workshop projects are under construction.

Major cities in Germany's energy transition are mainly reflected in: Hamburg, improving energy efficiency; Duisburg, improving combustion technology efficiency; Bremen, enhancing gas utilization; Eisenhüttenstadt, reducing the whole process emission.

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Russia's steel enterprises face increasing competition

As an inherent advantage gradually fades out, Russian steel enterprises will face a new challenge in the future. AndreyLaptev, Severstal steel company strategy director, said in order to maintain its attractiveness to investors, the Russian steel enterprises not only need to have the ability to provide pre-tax profits, but also need to guarantee to enterprise capital holder on a regular basis to provide a certain number of free cash flow , in Moscow Steel summit recently. Under the pressure of excess capacity, these challenges only through long-term cost reduction and the development of mergers, acquisitions and capital expenditures revenue allocation rules to achieve.

Earlier, although Russian steel production cost in the global is the lowest, but the steel transportation distance is longer, and therefore its cost advantage on the delivery of benchmark has decreased, especially in export markets. Russian part of the production costs is also growing, and tends to increase more than general inflation and its electricity and natural gas prices and the United States was essentially flat.

Despite high inflation and temporary excess capacity, in raw materials, utilities, natural gas, considerable pull under population and a growing middle class, Russia is still the ideal place in the world's steel production. Laptev said the foundation of the Russian steel industry is very strong, and because the vast land area and from external competition.

Severstal steel company said the global overcapacity in the steel industry will not be eliminated in the short term, but the pace of expansion slowed down last year, and will continue to slow down, because before the start of the project in Russia, India, Southeast Asia, Brazil and China in 2008-2009 crisis is also nearing completion. Laptev commented that if the Chinese government to fulfill its strategic goals, and shutting down polluting steel enterprises, and limiting the new steel mill project investment, the imbalance of global steel supply and demand is expected to be eased in 2017-2018.

American Keystone Steel has announced that the delivery price of wire rod will improve $ 15/ton in August. Other mills are expected to follow the price increases in the coming days.

Although the market for scrap steel trend is not good in August, but it seems to have a record low steel prices, so Industry insiders estimate in August the U.S. wire rod prices will be a slight rebound in the price driven by the trend of rising price.

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Japanese steel mills will reduce the cost and improve the quality

Japan's largest steel manufacturer NSSC Company (NSSM) plans to close the factory’s the most old-fashioned one of three blast furnaces in Kimitsu in fiscal year 2015, Kobe Steel in 2017 fiscal year; the company will close the plant in Kobe the only one blast furnace. As for NSSC companies, the optimization of production is the first time since 1993, while Kobe Steel is also the first time since 1987 to restructure the production.

Facing Japanese cars and electronic equipment manufacturers actively expand overseas production, domestic steel demand is unlikely to increase, and the growing competition from China and South Korean steel mills, cost reduction and production rationalization is critical to the survival of steel.

In fiscal year of 2012, the Japanese steel demand in 2007 from 79 million tons down to 61 million tons. As Japan's population decline and overseas auto production increases, Japan's Kobe Steel CEO HiroyaKawasaki predicts that domestic steel demand is expected to fall to less than 55 million tons.

As the oversupply East Asia steel, as well as the competition from China and South Korea mills, forcing the Japanese steel mills to optimize production and reduce costs. According to the World Steel Association statistics, in 2012 the world's crude steel output representing an increase of 1.2%, China accounted for 46% of total production. NSSC president HiroshiTomono warned that China's steel production will continue to grow, making the supply and demand in a very dangerous level in East Asia. Moreover, Chinese and South Korean steel mills also plans to begin production of new steel mills around 2015 and oversupply exacerbated. In recent years, the Japanese steel mills have been forced to cut prices, compared with the 2008 fiscal year steel price drop about 20% - 30%. In addition, the depreciation of the yen makes Japanese imports of raw materials iron ore and coking coal prices to rise, and will inevitably engulfs part of the Japanese steel mills profits.

The Kobe Steel factory by closing the upstream production equipment and the upstream operations will all go to Kakogawa factory, which will make the production operations will be more reasonable, and can eliminate the oversupply in the upstream, and enhance cost competitiveness. Kobe Steel predict that the annual cost will save over 15 billion yen by closing the factory blast, but the rationalization of production may have a negative impact on the local economy, such as downsizing and taxes.

Another major mills in Japan JFE Steel Corporation plans to build a new factory in Fukuyama with the new equipment, greatly reducing the amount of coal and other raw materials in the iron making process.

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Chinese steel exports to the US reduced substantially

Hit by series of trade survey, China’s steel pipe producers who exports the steel pipe to the U.S. was drastically shrinking; Chinese other steel products export to the U.S. also began its dramatic decrease from 2009.

Recently, the U.S. International Trade Commission issued a notice that the thin-walled rectangular steel which was originating in China, Korea, Mexico and Turkey had the sunset review of anti-dumping comprehensively. In the meantime, originating in China's thin-walled rectangular steel was having a countervailing and the sunset review comprehensively.

July 18, 2007, the U.S. Department of Commerce on the origin of China's walled rectangular steel pipe had a countervailing and anti-dumping investigation. The products involved customs codes for 73,066,150.00 and 73,066,170.60.

From 2007 to 2008, the steel industry can be described as "Black Year." The U.S. imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on the four kinds of steel pipe products that originated in China. Later the U.S. imposed 10.3% ~ 15.78% countervailing duty and 29.94% ~ 99.14% anti-dumping duties on OCTG which was imported from China.

June 2008, the U.S. final ruling finds that Chinese enterprises that were investigated have accepted to offer hot rolled steel, land, and Specific areas of preferential income tax of enterprises with foreign investment and other three government subsidies. In addition to an active respondent companies tax rate is 2.17%, and because of dropping out of the survey, a mandatory respondent companies was ruled by adverse facts and was convicted of tax rates as high as 200.58% and other Chinese enterprises subsidies for tax rate is 15.28 percent. Some Chinese enterprises involved in anti-dumping dumping margin of 249.12% ~ 246.64%.

June U.S. steel import authorization were down 8%: the data of Import Administration U.S. Department of Commerce show that the U.S. steel import permit applications totaled 2,565,000 tons in June, compared with 2,853,000 tons in May decreased by 10%, and 2.802 million tons compared with May's preliminary imports total fell 8%. Among them, the imports of finished steel for the amount were 2.014 million tons, compared with 2,123,000 tons in May preliminary imports declined 5%. In the first half of the year, the U.S. steel and finished steel imports were 15,801,000 tons and 12,372,000 tons, down 10% and 9%. According to the first six months of import authorization applications for discounted annualized, the U.S. steel and finished steel imports were 31,602,000 tons and 24,745,000 tons in 2013, compared with 33,475,000 tons and 25,826,000 tons in 2012 and imports were down 6% and 4%. It is estimated that the finished steel import’s market share is23% in June and in the first half of the market share is 23%. The registration of a major amount of finished steel products import authorization imports in June compared with preliminary statistics in May was increased, during that the hot rolled sheet increases 38%, plate volume increased by 25%, oil pipe is up 15%, structural tube increases 12%, line pipe is up 11%. So far this year, significant growth in imports of primary products is the standard rails, heavy duty steel and tin plate. June, some of the largest applications for finished steel import countries were South Korea, China, Japan, Germany and Turkey. The first half of this year some of the largest importers were South Korea, Japan and China.

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Serious global steel overcapacity

Currently, the global steel overcapacity is long-term structural problems, not the market a cyclical problem, steel industry leaders need strong initiatives to reduce excess capacity, otherwise the steel industry can’t be reborn.

Morgan Stanley's research data shows that global excess steel production capacity is estimated 334 million tons, of which China about 200 million tons of excess. The next five years, the world's steel production is likely to increase by about 3%, which means that no action is taken, overcapacity situation will continue to exist. The traditional method of solving overcapacity is business combination, but there are not enough healthy steel companies willing to mergers and acquisitions unhealthy business. Overcapacity in China is a difficult problem.

Various countries steel market price is unknown China steel with large trade deficit

Data show that currently only U.S. steel mills raise prices slightly, other countries such as Japan, China steel product prices mostly fell or keep fair, however, there are many differences over the price.

Automotive industry what use more steel products in the U.S., India, Southeast Asia, China and other places is also good. Currently performance of Europe depot is poor, mainly because most of European depot to set up factories in emerging countries, but there is no feedback to home country after profit.

Public construction sector in various countries, the development of infrastructure in Indonesia is relatively good, Indonesian steel industry is not strong, causing Asian steel makers to actively seize the market. Professionals believe that China's public building strength is not enough, and the urbanization policy should be more explicit, in addition to its urbanization rate should be increased from the current 52% to 70%, the rest supporting building measures have to be more explicit so can estimate the impact on the steel market.

China is the world's major steel-producing countries, but because of steel production structure is irrational, but also it is the world's major steel importer. China steel imports are far more than exports in recent years. In 2000, for example, China's steel product exports achieved 3.047 billion U.S. dollars, while imports amounted to $ 9.56 billion, the trade deficit amounted to $ 6.513 billion.

Our main trading partners in Iron and steel products, Japan, South Korea and the EU is China's high-value-added steel major importing countries, CIS countries are our major importer of ordinary steel, Southeast Asian countries, the EU and the U.S. are major exporters of steel products.

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July international steel market stabilized

July, most of Asia will enter the rainy and hot weather, seasonal decline in demand will occur, meanwhile mills will also begin seasonal maintenance reduction of output, supply will decline.

European market: the downward trend has eased

June, the European market continues to decline, the downward trend has eased. Sheet prices continue to decline, the Nordic HRC ex-works compared to last year dropped by nearly 90 euro/ ton. Currently, the South, the Nordic price level is equivalent and steel may close to the bottom, with the ore price rise and inlet pressure weakened, the market is unlikely to fall further. However, the overall demand outlook bleak, European coil market may weak consolidation in later period. Long steel market continued to decline, since June Nordic scrap prices fell 25 euro / ton, follow by scrap, local rebar and wire rod prices fall 10 euro / ton, the southern European rebar selling price dropped to 465 euro / ton to 470 euro / ton.

U.S. Market: sheet rebound, weak longs

June U.S. HRC ex-works rose to $ 620 / ton to $ 640 / ton, cold rolled coil price is 720 $ / ton to 740 $ / ton. Thick market fell, currently below the level of $ 680 / ton to 700 $ / ton, which is the lowest since this year, steel market is expected to near the bottom. U.S. rebar market is steady. Basic specifications of the local rebar prices remain at $ 620 / ton to 640 $/ ton level.

First half of year the international market has appeared four major characteristics.

Asian supply continues to remain high. From January to May this year, world's 63 major steel-producing countries and regions in crude steel production was 658 million tons, an increase of 2.1%. May, the world's 63 major steel-producing countries and regions in crude steel production is 136.3 million tons, an increase of 2.6%.

Stocks continue to decline. In June, the Chinese stock market continues to decline, inventory pressures have eased, but the steel stocks are still at a high level. May, the U.S. service center inventory continues to decline, the market demand recovery, inventory pressure is very small; South Korea and Japan stocks continue to decline, which related primarily to reduction of steel production; European stocks increased slightly, weak demand and the decline in exports is the main reason. In addition to China, the world's leading region in May this year, steel stocks were lower than last year and the year earlier level, which has little pressure on the stock market, and there is the late replenishment needs.

Weakly adjust in raw material prices. June, the international raw material prices continue to decline. United States and Japan to maintain the overall downward trend in scrap prices, Turkish import prices bottoming out, the whole remains weak. July, August the global market to enter the off-season demand, scrap and pig iron prices are difficultly expected to have a good performance, probability of post-consolidation operation is larger.

Weak demand continues to run. June, global steel demand growth remains weak intensity, July, August the northern hemisphere enter rainy season, the seasonal decline in market demand.

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U.S. steel companies have anti-dumping investigation to Asian steel

Including U.S. Steel's number of steel mills requested the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) for the nine countries and regions, mainly Asian imports of some petroleum and natural gas industrial use steel pipe carrying on anti-dumping investigation. Countries and regions involved in include India, South Korea, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, China Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Turkey and Ukraine. U.S. mills require steel from those countries to impose anti-dumping duties, and requests for imports from India and Turkey of steel imposition of countervailing duties.

In recent years, the U.S. trade protectionism trend evident warming, many countries and regions of the world's steel imports for strict control, especially directed against China. This year in March, the United State steel also urged the ITC to take action for steel from China. In fact the United States has imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties for most of China's steel products include a variety of steel pipe and steel wire.

Last year in March, US Congress started the legislative process, quickly completed the countervailing bill changes, which retained commodity taxation powers on China and other countries to obtain government subsidies.

Relate news: Vietnam will impose anti-dumping duties for China imports of stainless steel

Vietnam News Agency reported on the 6th, Vietnamese Ministry of Trade and Industry has decided to carry on anti-dumping investigations and anti-dumping measures for cold-rolled stainless steel imported from China, Malaysia, Indonesia and China Taiwan.

 It is reported that surveyed commodities including carbon content less than 1.2% and a chromium content more than 10.5% of cold rolled stainless steel coil or steel section. This stainless steel suits for the production of furniture, such as wash basins, tubular furniture, hot water system, auto parts and building materials.

Currently, Vietnam imposed 0-10% import duty on the stainless steel, which makes so many Vietnamese domestic enterprises under deficit, therefore, various domestic steel enterprises require to levy 20 to 40 percent anti-dumping duty from the stainless steel.

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Asian steel price difficult to rise

In Southeast Asia, HRC import market in the doldrums. Japan and Korea Resources reported $ 540 / ton (CFR), low turnover of $ 10 / t. Because too large decline in China Resources recently, Mills seek price increases $ 15 / ton (CFR) to reach $ 530 / ton (CFR), but the Southeast Asian market is the rainy season, the terminal steel industry demand is low. In current market conditions Southeast Asia steel price is difficult to higher in the short term.

In India, the hot coil market sluggish. Due to weak international market, domestic financial constraints, market continued pessimism, coupled with continuous heavy rains hit India, market demand fall into sluggish. Currently local HRC ex-works remained at 33750-34250 rupees / tonne (566-575 U.S. dollars / ton), which remained unchanged since early April.

In Korea, the steel market remains weak, HRC market decline. Pohang retail price of hot rolled SS4003mm in the local market in May fell 20,000 won / t ($ 18 / t) to reach 73-74 ten thousand won / ton (648-657 U.S. dollars / ton). Chinese resources export prices to South Korea also in decline, SS400B3mm HRC prices is 515 U.S. dollars / ton (CFR), which fell nearly 40 U.S. dollars / ton in May. As the demand outlook is not optimistic, combined ore prices fall caused the costs support of steel prices reduced. South Korean domestic hot rolled coil prices and import prices may further decline.

Korean deformed bar market weakness. Local SD40010mm deformed bar retail price is 66-67 ten thousand won / ton, unchanged for 3 weeks. Currently the local construction activity to become more active, but with the advent of summer, the market demand is expected to soon fever. Although production of deformed bar has cut during the summer, but low demand for local and export markets offset benefits of reduction of output. South Korea is expected in the next two months deformed bar market is not likely to rise.

In Japan, steel section market keeps stable. Tokyo market SS400 H-beam price of about 7.0-7.1 big ten thousand yen / ton (737-748 U.S. dollars / ton), which remained unchanged since mid March, compared to beginning of the year just improve ¥ 2,000 / t ($ 21 / t). In view of the local construction industry, it has robust demand so the Japanese steel section prices will slowly rise.

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